Why 2026 is a Defining Year for Mobile Games

Looking back at 2025, it feels like we closed the final chapter in a multi-year correction cycle. After more than a decade of uninterrupted growth, between 2022–2024 the mobile games market went through its first meaningful decline, and only last year began to find its footing again.

During the past years, the industry was forced to adjust to structural changes: privacy shifts, rising UA costs, maturing genres, and the collapse of many playbooks that worked reliably for years. It has been a testing period for almost everyone. Competition intensified while predictability declined. The companies that survived did so not because they were the largest, but because they adapted the fastest.

In many ways, 2025 reminded us just how young this industry still is.

We don’t yet have the stable frameworks, norms, or predictable operating environments that older entertainment industries enjoy. Movies and TV have a decades-long headstart, so it’s no wonder the Netflixes and Disneys of the world boast more established business models, distribution channels, and audience measurement.

Mobile games, on the other hand, operate in an ecosystem that’s still being defined: our supply chain runs through two app stores with immense power, our discovery is algorithmic, our revenue can swing on a single ad-network change, and our production methods still reinvent themselves every few years. We are still figuring out platform economics, creative risk, long-term intellectual property (IP) building, and even what “quality” means on mobile.

The modern mobile game industry is only about 15 years young and, in many respects, we are still teenagers: capable of incredible output, but volatile, experimental, and constantly redefining our identity in a rapidly changing environment. To understand why 2026 is shaping up to be a defining year for mobile games, we need to look at the structural shifts in 2025 that left a mark on the industry.

Five key shifts in 2025 that will shape the future

1. Chinese publishers reset the competitive bar

The mobile games market is extremely saturated, and we've been talking about intensifying competition for years. Perhaps the most visible power shift of 2025 was the emergence of Chinese publishers, such as Microfun, Century Games, and FunPlus-style challengers, who built games specifically for Western audiences and executed with precision. These companies brought a new level of speed, operational intensity, and hybrid design sensibility. Their rise is a challenge to Western studios but also an inspiration: they remind the industry that ambition, crisp execution, and sharp creative instincts can still move the needle dramatically.

2. Roblox became a core platform, not a side experiment

The platform landscape is also in rapid flux. Roblox became one of the most important platforms for reaching younger audiences globally in 2025. It evolved far beyond a kids’ UGC sandbox, and major brands, studios, and even experienced game teams now treat Roblox as a meaningful part of their portfolio strategy. More importantly, it is teaching a whole generation to think of mobile as a platform for expression and creation. Roblox's example shows us how competition, and even single studios, can drive the industry forward.

3. Hybrid casual matured to a mainstream discipline

2025 was also the year hybrid casual stopped being a “category” and instead became a method or a mindset. The lines between casual, midcore, and strategy continued to blur, and many of the year’s most successful titles were hybrid in some way. Hybrid established itself as the new default for teams that want both growth and durability.

4. Casual games returned to growth – in a new form

Despite all the talk around market decline, one of the most encouraging developments last year was the return to growth in the broader casual category. It’s a new form that’s deeper, more stylised, more hybrid in design, more ad-monetized, and more data-driven. Merge, decoration, lifestyle simulations, and hybrid-casual puzzles are all gaining momentum again. This new casual is less about simplicity and more about accessibility combined with depth. It has become the training ground for the next generation of long-running IP.

5. App stores are no longer monopolizing the market

Beyond games and genres, the rules of our operating environment also began to change, taking some key steps towards a more mature industry. Driven by regulatory pressure from the EU and continued legal action from Epic, platforms faced an accelerated shift in distribution. Yes, Apple and Google still own the attention layer, but they no longer fully own the transaction layer. With web stores, third-party marketplaces, and alternative billing finally becoming real options, it signals the possibility that developers may gain actual leverage in how they price, package, and distribute content.

Together, these shifts point to a market that is reshaping rather than retreating.

2026 will be another step toward a more mature mobile games industry

Fewer “accidental hits,” more deliberate businesses

The volatility of the past few years has forced teams to become more disciplined about operations, more thoughtful in portfolio strategy, and more intentional about long-term value creation. More studios will build around systems, repeatable processes, and stronger understanding of player economics. In 2026 our trajectory will increasingly resemble a mature entertainment sector: clearer segment definitions, more predictable production patterns, and more emphasis on durable IP.

IP will be treated as a relationship, not just an asset

The role of IP and brand will evolve from relying on legacy intellectual property to nurturing long-term originals. Successful companies will treat IP not just as an asset but as a long-term relationship with an audience: something built consistently through world-building, storytelling, tone, and emotional connection. The real breakout value will come from teams willing to invest early in something new and nurture it over time.

Game design, UA testing, and creative development will converge

2025 introduced major shifts in UA, but 2026 will scale them dramatically. AI-generated creatives will move from novelty to foundational capability. Teams will be producing not dozens but hundreds of variations daily, allowing micro-segmented creative strategies that adapt in real time. The most significant transformation is that game design, UA testing, and creative development will begin to merge. The boundary between “the game” and “the ad” will become blurry – prototypes will be informed by ad performance, and ads will increasingly resemble lightweight playable slices of the future game itself. Speed will become a competitive advantage.

GTA VI could be most consequential release of the decade

Grand Theft Auto VI (if it finally arrives) will reshape the entire landscape, not just console gaming. A game of that cultural magnitude shifts player expectations across all platforms. It resets the bar for world-building, narrative ambition, social presence, and cross-media impact. Even mobile will feel the tremor: the game will re-anchor what “premium” feels like, influence design aspirations, and force a re-evaluation of how audiences allocate time across devices. Every few years, a single title redefines the conversation – 2026 may be one of those years.

Two winning paths for mobile game companies in 2026

All the signs point to 2026 being a pivotal year for mobile game studios. In this environment, publishers will have two main ways to stand out. Either doubling down on existing genres with superior execution, where small but meaningful improvements in core mechanics, tuning, or onboarding can dramatically shift lifetime value, or pursuing radical innovation, where new genres emerge from unexpected combinations of mechanics, motivations, or formats, often inspired by rapid creative and UA testing cycles.

Both paths require a deep, almost scientific understanding of how mechanics influence behavior. The industry is moving away from intuition-driven design to evidence-based, principle-driven design. The teams that can articulate why a mechanic works, not just copy one that works, will have a disproportionate advantage.

All of this raises the bar for us as publishers. At Metacore, we believe 2026 is exactly the year to lean in to experimenting actively, taking calculated risks, investing in growth, without waiting or playing it safe. We see that there’s real potential for us to unlock, both with Merge Mansion and our new games under development. While competition in casual and merge-2 categories will no doubt continue to intensify, it’s above all a positive challenge for us at Metacore.

– Mika

Based on Mika's interview that first appeared in Gamesmarkt on Jan 15, 2026.